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Google Analytics Conversion Probability Launches BETA

April 19, 2018

This week saw the latest BETA release of a Google Analytics report; Conversion Probability.

You can find it by logging in to your Google Analytics account, opening the ‘Audience’ suite of reports, expanding the ‘Behavior’ accordion, and clicking on ‘Conversion Probability’.

The report attempts to show you which of your users are most likely to convert, giving an estimate of the probability of a particular user converting, ranging from 1 to 100. A value closer to 1 indicates a low probability of conversion, while a value closer to 100 indicates a high probability of conversion.

Users are grouped by their conversion probability, with default views of 0-1, 2-5, 6-20, 21-50 and 51-100 – you can expand each of these default groups to dive deeper into more specific segments

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You can view the Avg. % Conversion Probability metric for your marketing channels, and quickly identify which source your next conversions are likely to come from; in the example below, we can see that Email and Display look far more likely to yield a conversion than Social or Direct, for example.

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How Does An Analytics Account Qualify For Conversion Probability Reporting?

In order to calculate the dimension and metric, Google Analytics needs the following:

  • A minimum of 1,000 Ecommerce transactions per month in the reporting view. (You must have implemented ‘Ecommerce Tracking’).
  • Once you reach the initial threshold of 1,000 ecommerce transactions, Google Analytics then needs 30 days of data to model.


How Can Marketers Put Conversion Probability To Use?

The % Conversion Probability dimension, with ranges as dimension values, is available in the Conversion Probability report, and in Analytics segments, remarketing audiences, and custom reports, meaning that marketers can now create both segments and marketing campaigns to track, analyse and market to those users most likely to covert, thus potentially cutting wasted spend and increasing ROI, as well as figuring out the most effective ways to engage and convert users.


We’ve already started to put this new report and metric to use at Venture Stream, mining for insights, creating audiences and tweaking our client campaigns accordingly, and we’re looking forward to seeing what results we can expect in the coming weeks.


Find out more about how to use conversion-probability data here.

Written by Andy

Andy is Venture Stream’s Chief Operating Officer and has over 15 years’ experience in ecommerce consultancy, design and retail marketing.

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